THE STATE OF THE WORLD: ASSESSING CHINA'S STRATEGY

By: George Friedman

Published: Stratfor; 3/6/2012; http://finance.townhall.com or the Stratfor website. Alternatively, you could also google the title and author’s name.

Level of Difficulty: *****

Suggestion: It would be a good idea to seek out a related video on tedtalks to listen to first.

QUESTIONS

Read the first five paragraphs

1.       What long standing problem in China did Mao build his bid for power on? Be very specific.

2.       What downside of Mao’s policy is the Chinese government trying to rectify?

3.       Why exactly does China need to export?

4.       Why is keeping the buffer states on a tight leash vital for China? There are two possible answers; find both.

Now summarize this section.

Read “Challenged Interests”

5.       The basic underlying cause of the difficulty China is experiencing providing the interior with the subsidies it requires is ………………………………………………………………………………………………….

6.       What makes open conflict between India and China impractical at present?

7.       Open conflict between India and China would occur if ……………………………………………………. Or ……………………………………………………………How likely is this?

8.       What does the phrase “those flows” in the sentence “Maintaining those flows is a considerable challenge” in paragraph 13 refer to? You will need to tweak the text.

9.       What would the outcome be if the flow could not be maintained? There are two answers; find both.

10.   What is the immediate result of China’s current model of employment and market share? What are the ultimate results?

11.   There is a solution to this problem; however, it is tough to implement in China specifically because ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… (Two reasons)

Now summarize this section.

Read “A Military Component”

12. What specific danger does the layout of the seas around China present for the country?
13. What conclusion can be drawn about China’s ability to prevent a US attack from paragraphs 16, 17 and 18?
14. What alternative route has china chosen? What inherent problems does this solution present?
15. What conclusion can be drawn concerning China’s military capabilities from paragraph 21?

Now summarize this section.

Read “Internal Security vs. Power Projection”

16. Why would the PLA be at a disadvantage in a war situation?
17. What does the phrase “this restructuring” in paragraph 23 refer to?
18. What conclusion can be drawn from the information in paragraph 24?

Now summarize this section.

Read “Political Situation”

19. The fact that a military option is closed for China means that in terms of foreign policy, China must ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
20. How could the above policy backfire?
21. To what extent does the writer seem to agree with the perception that China is a rising regional or even global power?

Now summarize this section.

THE STATE OF THE WORLD: ASSESSING CHINA’S STRATEGY KEY AND TEACHER’S NOTES

This text is not only fascinating as it analyses the policies pursued by one of the rising global powers but also, as is always the case with George Friedman, a brilliant essay lexically and technically. I think it is good for the students to see that all we say about writing good essays is, in fact, practiced by eminent scholars as well. Due both to subject matter and questions, it is not easy though, and should not be attempted until close to the proficiency. I found the text riveting and I can safely say the students will too. They love 21^st century politics and history.

1. The disparity of wealth between the coastal region and the interior.
2. Poverty.
3. China’s industrial base produces more than its domestic economy can consume.
4. Because securing these regions means China can insulate itself from Russia to the north…; Controlling the buffer states …………………………
5. The economic downturn in Europe and the US.
6. The Himalayas.
7. China sent large numbers of forces into Pakistan; if large numbers of Indian troops entered Tibet. Not very.
8. The flow of exports out and raw materials in.
9. Incomes in the interior would fall to politically explosive levels. OR revolution.
10. Inflation; the cost of subsidizing the interior rises and China’s competitiveness with other low cost global exporters is eroded.
11. It would necessitate a different sort of work force; it would require direct competition with the well established economies of ….
12. A blockade by the US. OR the US would impose a blockade on China.
13. Possible answer: China doesn’t have the technology or expertise to counter such an attack.
14. Acquiring port access in countries in the Indian ocean and outside the South China Sea box; China needs transportation infra structure linking China to the ports, China needs to maintain political relationships that will allow it to access the ports, roads and rail lines are easily sabotaged.
15. China has managed to project an image of itself …
16. Using a force trained for security as a force for offensive operations leads either to defeat or very painful stalemates. The PLA was built to control China would not be a good answer as it would require explanation. One would want to say “So what? When such is the case, there is a better answer.
17. Transferring internal security responsibilities to the people’s armed police.
18. There is a disjuncture between the perception of China as a regional power and the reality.
19. Politically neutralize the US.
20. It could strain relation with the US.
21. He has reservations. He feels this view is exaggerated.