RUSSIA'S STRATEGY

By: George Friedman

Published: Sratfor, Geopolitical Weekly; April24, 2012

Location: It is suggested that you Google the title along with the word Stratfor or the name of the author to locate the text. If you are a subscriber, just go to http://www.stratfor.com

Level of Difficulty: **** (Due to the subject matter)

QUESTIONS

Read the first two paragraphs of the text

1.       What long standing policy objective had to be shelved post 1991?

2.       The writer draws the conclusion that the Russian Empire was never at peace. On what does he base this conclusion?

3.       The facts that Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler and confronted the far wealthier Americans for four decades during the Cold War proves that the widely held view that …………………………………………………………………………………………… is not always right.

Read: Economy and Security

4.       What are the two general reasons for Russia’s economic woes? Why exactly do these factors become such an issue in Russia?

5.       What were the reasons for the push for the constituent parts of the empire to join forces?

6.       The writer says “If the union and the empire were to survive, they would need economic relations ordered in such a way that some regions were put at a disadvantage, others at an advantage.” What was the reason for this view?

7.       In such a system, what happens if the security apparatus fails?

8.       The third factor that bound the Russian empire together was ……………………….. It was, however, less successful than Marxism-Leninism because ………………………………………………

9.       What two conclusions did the KGB reach concerning the future of the USSR?

10.   The writer ends this section by saying “They lost the bet”. How exactly did they lose?

Before you move on to the next section, attempt a brief summary of the views expressed in the section.

Read: The Soviet Collapse

11.   Which institution was, to a large extent, able to hang on to its power and regain lost ground in time? Why?

12.   What were Putin’s three principles?

13.   It was important to Russia that Ukraine not move out of the sphere of Russian influence because ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

14.   How exactly was Putin able to regain control of Georgia and Ukraine? What would have happened if America had been able to intervene?

15.   The purpose of the Eurasian project is to resurrect …………………………………………………………..

Before you move on to the next section, attempt a brief summary of the views expressed in this section.

Read: Remaking the Union

16.   Russia’s current economic strategy involves ……………………………………………………………………..

17.   Close links with Kazakhstan and Ukraine are essential to Russia since such an alliance …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

18.   The policy of Russia under Putin is different from that of the Russian Empire in that ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

19.   Why exactly was 9/11 such a huge bonus for Russia?

20.   What are the two advantages for Russia of prolonging the problems concerning Syria?

21.   What are Russia’s twin purposes with respect to Germany?

22.   Read the paragraph that starts “For Russia,” and state clearly what conclusion we can draw from it.

23.   Read the last sentence of the text and state in your own words how the writer reaches this conclusion.

Before you stop, attempt a brief summary of the views expressed in this section.

KEY AND TEACHER’S NOTES

This brilliant and well thought out analysis of Russia’s foreign policy is a wonderful mini history lesson, especially for our students, as they never read papers. The beauty is that it is not only content wise all encompassing and accurate but also relatively short, at four pages. It is, therefore, ideal. The summaries should be done orally so that you can prompt students if necessary. I personally think this is a superb test of comprehension; however, should you disagree, skip the summaries.

1.       To incorporate Eastern Europe, Central Asia, The Caucuses and Siberia.

2.       The borders were always dynamic…

3.       Political and military power requires a strong economy.

4.       Geography and transportation. Russia’s rivers don’t provide an integrated highway to Russia, lack of alternative modes of transport.

5.       Lack of economic integration and weakness in agricultural transport, in particular, dramatically limited prosperity in the Russian Empire and USSR the relative…

6.       The army created the Empire. Its alignment of economic interests…

7.       The regime does not survive.

8.       The Russian Orthodox Church; It created religious differentials.

9.       It had to restructure or collapse; the traditional insularity of the USSR had to be shifted

10.   The USSR collapsed/ shattered.

11.   The KGB. It was the most sophisticated and well organized portion of the Soviet apparatus.

12.   The security system was the heart of the state; Moscow was the heart of Russia; Russia was the heart of the former USSR.

13.   It was economically and geographically essential to Russian national security.

14.   Russia would have been permanently weakened.

15.   The USSR.

16.   Exporting raw material specially energy.

17.   Provides strategic depth.

18.   Putin’s strategy is to take advantage of relationships on a roughly mutual basis without undertaking responsibility for other nations.

19.   With 9/11, the USA became obsessed with the jihadist wars giving Russia a window…

20.   It will relieve pressure on Russia and give more time for reordering the former USSR.

21.   Becoming an economic partner (implied), recruiting Germany to the view that the US is a destabilizing force.

22.   Russia’s foreign policy is built around the need to buy time for it to complete its evolution.

23.   Possible answer: some of the hardest work has been done, which makes the Russian dream feasible.