IRAN'S STRATEGY

By: George Friedman

Published: April 11, 2012; Stratfor ; May 15,2012 finance.townhall.com/columnists/georgefriedman .  Alternatively, Google the title along with the writer’s name.

Level of Difficulty: *****

QUESTIONS

Read the first three paragraphs of the text.

1.       What is it that holds these three paragraphs together as a meaningful and coherent unit? Analyze to provide specific reasons.

Read “Iran as a Regional Power”

2.       Read the account of the shah’s and Ahmedinejat’s policies. What conclusion can be drawn from this information?

3.       The writer reaches the following conclusion in the second paragraph in this section: “Both acted within the traditions of Iranian strategic subtlety”. Use your own words to state how he reaches this conclusion. Be as brief as possible.

4.       What does “this maneuvering” in the sentence “As a result of this maneuvering, Iran achieved two goals.” Refer to?

5.       Iran regarded getting the US out of Iraq as necessary to avoid ……………………………………………

6.       An opportunity was created for Iran in the region due to the elimination of two other threats as well. They were: ………………………………………………………………………………………………...............

Before moving on, provide a brief summary of this section.

Read “Iran’s Opportunity”

7.       Iran’s current strategy involves a fine balancing act which is basically …………………………………

8.       The long standing fear Iran is trying to exploit is ………………………………………………………………….

9.       Read the information concerning North Korea. What specific aspect of North Korean policy did Iran adopt? Be very specific.

10.   What is the advantage of the above policy for Iran?

11.   Read the information concerning Israel. What conclusion can we draw concerning Iranian policy from this information?

Before you move on, provide a brief summary of this section.

Read “Syria’s importance to Iran”

12.   The first paragraph in this section ends with the following sentence: “And this is why the United States is currently obsessing over Syria”. Why exactly is the US obsessing over Syria? To prevent …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

13.   What are the three advantages to Iran of the above strategy? Be brief and to the point.

14.   In the conclusion of the text, the current Iranian strategy is summarized State clearly what it is.

Last of all; provide a brief summary of this section also.

KEY AND TEACHER’S NOTES

This activity is also based on a brilliant George Friedman analysis of Iran and the country being a neighbour, should interest our students; that and the fact that the essay is again beautifully planned, concise and insightful. This essay lent itself to more challenging comprehension questions and by default, to more challenging summary exercises. I hope it is useful. As with every activity I post, check for related videos on to get the ball rolling; on tedtalks for instance…

1. The topic sentence: Though always weaker than these larger empires, Iran survived for three reasons: geography, resources and diplomacy. The concluding statement: Whether ruled by shah or ayatollah, Iran’s strategy remained the same: deter by geography, protect with defensive forces and engage in complex diplomatic maneuvers. The first paragraph deals with geography and diplomacy, the second with diplomacy.
2. We see substantial continuity in Iran’s strategy since WWI. The following sentence is support: Iran dreams of achieving regional dominance by breaking free from its constraints the threats posed by nearby powers. This second sentence is not really the best answer. The reason should be explained to the students.
3. Possible answer: Both the shah’s and Ahmedinejat’s foreign policy centered on the US which it tried to manipulate.
4. A sophisticated disinformation campaign helping many factions in Iraq resist Americans, paralyzing the country after the Americans withdrew.
5. War with the US.
6. The Ottoman Empire and the USSR.
7. Solidifying its regional influence while not triggering US retaliation.
8. The US concern with nuclear weapons
9. Having a deliverable nuclear weapon
10. It causes the US to simultaneously take them more seriously and increase its caution while dealing with them.
11. An attack by Israel, successful or unsuccessful, would cost Iran little and create substantial opportunities. OR: The Iranians want a program not a weapon but having the Israelis attack the program would suit Iran’s interests quite nicely.
12. An Iranian sphere of influence stretching from western Afghanistan to Beirut.
13. The Us would abandon ideas of destroying Iran, it would legitimize the regime, Iran could force shifts in the financial distribution of revenues from oil.
14. To avoid any sudden moves; to create a diversion through its nuclear program.