POLAND'S STRATEGY

By: George Friedman

Published:  August 28, 2012; Stratfor, Geopolitical Weekly; http://www.stratfor.com . Alternatively, just google the title and author’s name.

Level of Difficulty: ****

BEFORE YOU READ

It is suggested that you seek out a video on Poland to watch before you actually start reading to familiarize yourself with the country and its history.

QUESTIONS

1.       Why has maintaining its identity and independence been especially hard for Poland?

2.       In paragraph two, the writer says Poland’s national strategy is colored by a basic sense of fear and desperation. Be specific. You will need to tweak the text for the ideal answer.

3.       Try and summarize paragraph three in one short sentence.

4.       What does “which” refer to in the phrase “after which it had to fight the Soviets” in paragraph four?

5.       What does the phrase “this root issue” at the end of paragraph five refer to?

6.       What fact facilitated the invasion of Poland throughout history? Be very specific.

7.       What does “This” at the beginning of paragraph nine refer to?

8.       The disadvantages of the above situation were eliminated by means of …………………………………

9.       The above move is only completely viable under two conditions. They are: ……………………………

10.   Germany’s reaction to the worsening crisis in the EU may impact Poland directly if ……………….

11.   Poland’s desire to try and found the Intermarium were similar to its reasons for desiring …………………………………………………………… Use your head and base your answer on what you have read thus far.

12.   According to the text, the US is likely to distance itself from what happens in Europe provided that ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

13.   The two reasons for the above US attitude are: ……………………………………………………………………

14.   Why didn’t Poland’s alliances save it in 1939?

15.   What would be the disadvantage of the collapse of Poland as far as the US is concerned?

16.   What does “This” refer to in the sentence “This is a question of economics and national will” at the beginning of paragraph twenty one?

17.   What similarity is there between Poland’s current attitude to the EU and NATO and that of the Polish nobility in the 18^th century? You may use your own words if you wish but it isn’t strictly necessary.

18.   The ultimate conclusion the text reaches concerning Poland’s future strategy is: ………………………………………….. Use your own words.

POLAND’S STRATEGY KEY AND TEACHER’S NOTES

This is another of George Friedman’s brilliant pieces of writing. As you know from previous texts I have used by the same author, they are intricate, analytical texts which are any test writer’s dream. This is why I have given it four stars despite the relative straightforwardness of the language of the text itself. Look out for questions 3, 8, 9, 11, 17 and 18. You may need to provide guidance to help students see the logic. Plus of course, there is the added bonus of an enjoyable history lesson – a favorite with students.

1.       Because it is located on the oft-invaded North European plain.

2.       Losing to a superior power or a war begets national catastrophe.

3.       Possible answer: The decline of Poland from the 17^th to the late 18^th century was dramatic.

4.       The treaty of Versailles.

5.       Poland retaining its independence and avoiding foreign occupation.

6.       The fact that the lands to the East, West and Southwest are flat plains with only rivers to provide limited protection.

7.       Finding an outside power to guarantee its (Poland’s) interests.

8.       Membership in multilateral organizations such as the EU and NATO.

9.       Russia is weak and inwardly focused and NATO and the EU are reliable institutions.

10.   Germany, not wanting to shoulder the cost of maintaining the EU, loosens its ties with the block and moves closer to Russia.

11.   Close ties with NATO and the EU.

12.   The threat appears manageable.

13.   Its experiences in the Islamic world and the fact that it is maturing as a global power.

14.   The intervention took more time than the Polish army was able to buy

15.   It would deprive the US of a critical bulwark against Moscow on the European plain.

16.   (Mounting) a single front attack

17.   Poland fails to recognize that nations must ultimately guarantee their own national security.

18.   Possible answer: Poland must be prepared to spend a great deal of money to secure its defense to the East.