By: George Friedman
Published: April 17, 2012; The Geopolitical
Weekly the state of the world
Level: ****
Thanks are due to my friend and colleague
Hamide Koz for this interesting text.
QUESTIONS
Read the first two paragraphs of the text.
1.
What
is the function of the last sentence of paragraph one?
2.
What
was the advantage of the significant loss of land and political control Turkey
suffered after WWI?
Read The Russia Problem.
3.
What
vested interest did Russia have in the reshaping of Turkish sovereignty?
4.
What
were the reasons for The US foreign policy after WWII?
5.
Close
ties with the US suited Turkey too because………………………………………….. (Be brief and to
the point)
6.
Why
exactly did relationships with the US change in the ‘90’s?
Read The Post Soviet Shift:
7.
Why
exactly did Turkey’s relationships with the US remain unchanged even after the
change in strategic environment?
8.
Read
the information about the US invasion of Iraq. What conclusion can we draw from
this information?
9.
What
does “That” refer to in the phrase “That left Turkey free to consider other
options”?
10.
This
shift in foreign policy could have gained Turkey EU membership. It did not.
Why?
11.
In
retrospect, the denial of EU membership turned out to be a blessing. Why?
12.
What
three factors determine Turkey’s post cold war strategy?
Read The Transitional Stage.
- For what reasons has Turkey not yet become
a great power?
- Current Turkish foreign policy may be
compared to that of the US between 1900 and WWI. What is the similarity?
- What two problems must Turkey address
before becoming a great power in the region?
- The Kurdish problem could be seen as
Turkey’s soft underbelly because…………………………..
- A dire consequence of the above situation
could be ………………………………………………………………
- In this last section of the text, Turkey
and the US are, once again, compared. What is the similarity?
- What does “This” refer to in the phrase
“This means allowing events around them to take their course”?
- Why exactly is managing a transitional
power so hard?
KEY AND TEACHER’S NOTES
This brilliant analysis of Turkey’s strategy
off the Stratfor website is one of the most concise, historically accurate,
insightful and well organized pieces of writing I have seen in a while. I have
not included a pre reading activity as I have grave doubts the students have
the background but I do feel this text will go like a dream. It might be an
idea to analyze organization too as it is so well thought out. I suggest the
students read the text in sections and answer the relevant questions so they
actually absorb the content as well.
- It justifies the way the text has been
planned and written.
- It solved the problem of Turkey’s
strategic interests having come to outstrip its power.
- To prevent a blockade, to project power
into the Mediterranean.
- A soviet allied or Soviet influenced would
have broken the center of the American containment system, changing the
balance of power.
- It was unable to deal with the Soviets
alone.
- Because Turkey was freed from the fear of
Russia. The defining element in Turkish foreign policy was gone is
unacceptable as it requires further clarification.
- Because of inertia and inattention.
- It is much easier to forge a foreign
policy in the face of a clear threat than in the face of an undefined set
of opportunities.
- The Turks viewing themselves…
- A host of reasons from massive Turkish
immigration to Greek hostility blocked Turkey’s membership bid.
- Turkey was left with a more dynamic
economy than most of Europe and without liability for Greece’s debts.
- Its rise in relative power, the possible
dangers posed to Turkish interests by destabilization, the US is in the
process of….
- Paragraph one in the section.
- A transitional foreign policy is at work
OR there is a period of balancing.
- The ongoing tensions between the secular
and religious elements in its society; the Kurdish problem.
- So long as the Kurdish issue persists…
- The undermining of Turkey’s power….
- The more powerful a nation becomes, the
more vulnerable it might be.
- Turkey’s current strategy is to make its
safety among nations last as long as possible.
- Because it involves keeping your balance
when the world around you is in chaos and the stresses this places on
society and government.